Saturday, December 29, 2007

Week 17 Predictions from the King of "The League of Dorks"

So, after talking over my new blog feature with Jeremy, we've decided that its only fair for him to post his picks as well. That way, when I kick his ass so hard he cries, you will all be witnesses to see exactly how this went down. I should also note that I have no idea what Jeremy is writing about and I am in no way shape or form monitoring what he has written because a, i dont understand it, and b, i dont really care.

Also, he doesn't want to totally rip off Bill Simmons, so he objected to me wanting to call him Mini Sports Guy. Therefore, he will have to be known as the King of the League of Dorks, until he comes up with a better name or caves and lets me call him what I want to.

So, without further ado, Jer's Week 17 picks.

Let me preface this by saying 2 things. First, this is the most boring week of NFL games in recent memory. Generally week 17 is very exciting but in both conferences 5 of the 6 seeds are entirely sewn up. There are about 4 games that I would say actually matter, which is probably a generous assessment. I don’t know that you can count a game as exciting when only one of the teams cares about the outcome.

Second, I fully anticipate Jordan having a better record than mine in this NFL picks experiment. Especially after this last college football season, I firmly believe that the more you know, the less you know. Also, I’m fairly certain that the only person with a chance at reading this all the way through is Jacob. I don’t think Jordan is even going to and it’s her blog.

New England Patriots at New York Giants – Patriots

I wish the Giants would win this game, and technically I think they could follow the formula to have some success, but I can’t pick Eli Manning for anything under any circumstances. On paper, the Giants have a solid rushing game with Jacobs and the best pass rushes in the league with Strahan, Omenyiora, and the rest of the front 7, but I won’t pick against the Pats here. They want this win and the individual records that they’ll earn here and I’m not convinced the Giants starters are playing this whole game.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears – Bears

This is a game that could potentially officially eliminate the Saints from playoff contention. I want the Saints to take it because I promised Sean I’d root for them after he bought me a DeMarcus Ware jersey, but I don’t see it. McCallister has been out, Bush is still going to be out, Stecker is a game time decision, and Colston got clocked pretty hard last week. I guess get ready for the Devery Henderson show. As someone who has had Henderson on my fantasy team for parts of the last 2 seasons, let me assure you it’s a bad show. I want Brees to succeed, but as the Bears proved last week by knocking off Green Bay, they’re still a proud group with a solid, if no longer dominating defense. And it’s going to be really cold there, so ask Sean what happened the last time the Saints played a cold weather game in Chicago, he saw firsthand.

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns – Browns

I don’t have any question about this one. The 49ers are the second worst team in the league and the Browns have a playoff spot to play for. It’s going to be really cold and possibly snowing in Cleveland and the 49ers aren’t used to that. Big games from Edwards, Winslow, Anderson, and Jamal Lewis. This will be over before the 4th quarter.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers – Packers

Dome team at Lambeau in December alert! I really feel bad about what happened to Detroit’s season. I love what Marinelli is doing, but injuries and Mike Martz caught up with them. Jon Kitna had no business going public with the 10 win prediction, but you like the confidence. Green Bay is going to play a lot of second stringers here, but Aaron Rodgers is going to continue to prove that he isn’t a joke and the Detroit D gave up weeks ago.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins – Dolphins

When Jordan beats me this week, this is one of the games I’m going to point to as proof that people who know what they’re talking about overanalyze this stuff. Anyway, these are two teams who have been out of the playoff race for a while, but the Dolphins have things to play for now with the Bill Parcells hire. Meanwhile, the Bengals are dysfunctional on many levels. Marvin Lewis is testing exactly how terrible you can coach without getting fired. The team quit on him, and the game is in South Beach so I’d be willing to bet on one player getting arrested prior to game time. The offense has massively underachieved and there hasn’t been a Bengal defense for about 4 years now. On the other side, the Dolphins players are auditioning for next year. These are a lot of marginal NFL players who want to prove to Parcells that they belong on this team. All the quotes from the Miami players this week seem like the Parcells hire has lit a bit of a fire there. I’m either going to look like a genius or an idiot and based on my track record I’d go with the latter.

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles – Eagles

This is likely the last Eagles home game for Donovan McNabb, so he will try to put on a show here. Plus the Bills lost a home game in front of Kevin Everett, lost a 14 point first quarter lead, and lost their playoff chances all in one game. I’m guessing they really mail this one in.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Panthers

Here is part 2 of I’m an idiot for making this pick. Every second that Jon Gruden has his starters on the field is a second too long. Lets have a roll call of their best players along with their ages. Jeff Garcia, 37. Joey Galloway, 36. Ike Hilliard, 31. Derrick Brooks, 34. Ronde Barber, 32. These guys should be under house arrest all weekend to make sure nothing happens to them before next week’s playoff game because the Bucs aren’t deep and likely would fall flat without any one of them. Assuming Gruden isn’t an idiot, this means it’s Bruce Gradkowski time at QB. In addition to this positive omen for Carolina, John Fox may need a win here to keep his job and it is entirely possible that Matt Moore could be an average quarterback (this is a compliment). A good game here gets Moore some thought as a potential player for a lot of teams next year if the Panthers decide to go back to Delhomme. Also, I like to say that David Carr sucks every chance I get. David Carr sucks.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons - Seahawaks
I badly want to pick Atlanta here. When the season started, I thought this was the chance Joey Harrington needed, but that blew up in my face. Now, I really believe the Falcons are the worst team in the NFL. Worse than the 49ers. Worse than Miami. For all intents and purposes this is an expansion team. Seattle will be playing their backups, but Seneca Wallace is possibly the best backup in football and the Seabirds D is very, very good even with the second string. Jordan Babineaux is a beast. I feel bad for Warrick Dunn in all of this, who is probably the best person in the league. Unfortunately, he really needs to retire but understandably doesn't want to end his career with this shit season.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans - Jaguars

This is probably the toughest call of the week. Jags are the hottest team in the league right now playing really great football, but this is technically a meaningless game for them. The question is, do you rest your players or keep the momentum going? This is a young team so I don’t think rest is as key as it is for a team like Tampa, so if I were Del Rio I’d limit Fred Taylor since he’s the senior citizen here and run Jones-Drew since he’s only 24. The other thing that makes this tough is the Jekyll and Hyde Houston Texans. The first few weeks of the season they looked like a legitimate threat. Andre Johnson is a fantastic receiver and has sometimes carried my fantasy teams each of the last 2 seasons. Schaub played well and then when Sage Rosenfels has had to come in he has decided to not play like Sage Rosenfels. Jordan sucks. Mario Williams has turned out to be the best player of the draft and DeMeco Ryans is one of the best young linebackers in football. This is a game that could be a big building block for next year, so they won’t roll over for Jacksonville. I’m taking the Jags because I think David Garrard plays most of the game. If Quinn Gray gets in there a lot then all bets are off.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins – Redskins

For the first time in my life, I’m rooting for the Cowboys to lose for reasons other than draft position. I am doing this for a few reasons. If the Cowboys lose, that means we saw a great deal of Brad Johnson and Tony Romo sat. I do not want to see the Cowboys busting ass to win this, there is absolutely no reason. Logically, I don’t see how the Boys win this one anyway. T.O. is out (Get well soon), Terrence Newman and Pat Watkins are both out so the secondary is going to be very shorthanded, and Jay Ratliff won’t be playing so Tank Johnson will be getting extended time. All this while the Redskins are playing in front of their home crowd and get a playoff spot if they win. I say let them have it, these could be famous last words but I’d rather see them come in for a playoff game than the Vikes or Saints.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Ravens

I already don’t like this pick. Baltimore has lost 9 straight and the Steelers won their division. However, Big Ben is out for this one and Willie Parker is out for the season. This means the backfield for the Steelers is Charlie Batch and Najeh Davenport. I’m sorry, but I can’t take them over Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. If Kyle Boller/Troy Smith can figure out a way to get 17 points on the board I think that will be enough. Unfortunately, that’s a big if. That said, the over/under for the game is 35. Just saying. Also, after reading Jordan’s picks it seems Daniel’s middle name is Marie. Way to persevere.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals – Rams

I have had an irrational belief in the Rams all season. They are much better than their record. The Cardinals won’t be stopping Steven Jackson and Tory Holt and this is what Kurt Warner’s wife looks like:

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets – Jets

In a bad week of football games this is probably the worst one on the schedule. There is a possibility that the Jets don’t completely suck. However, there is no possibility that the Chiefs don’t completely suck. How’s that for hard hitting analysis?

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders – Chargers

Easiest game to pick on the schedule. Here’s a quick run down of all the reasons the Chargers are winning this game: Raiders have the worst rush defense in football and are going against LaDainian Tomlinson, first career start for the ridiculously overrated future bust Jamarcus Russell against a stout Chargers D, Oakland coach Lane Kiffin is still wrestling with the difficulties of puberty, and Norv Turner wins more meaningless easy games to pad his record and make him look artificially good than any other coach in NFL history.

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos – Vikings

Watching the Tarvaris Jackson Experience has been one of the most interesting parts of this NFL season for me. I’m rooting for the guy because by all accounts he’s a great guy, really tries hard and wants to be a good leader, but when he has a bad game he has a B-A-D game. Brad Childress made a solid player of out Donovan McNabb in Philly and feels like he can do it again with Jackson, so I’m pulling for him. However, the reason I’m taking the Vikes here is Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson against the lousy Broncos rush D. The Vikings win this by controlling the clock and staying ahead. If Jackson has to pass against Champ Bailey and ‘Dre Bly it will be a long game for Minnesota. Don’t discount the possibility of Cutler having a solid game after jawing with Philip Rivers in last week’s game.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Titans

Tony Dungy NEVER plays his guys in these meaningless late season games. Tennessee needs this win to get in the playoffs. Vince Young in prime time with a nationally televised audience. He needs this one to get some critics off his back. Titans big, sorry Jim Sorgi.

And that’s where I see week 17. There’s still time, so get to your local bookie/gambling site and take all of Jordan’s picks and bet against mine. I feel good about some of my playoff picks coming up, so if Jordan decides this isn’t really boring you might get a chance to see some selections that I can stand behind.


Samuels said...

i read the whole thing. i don't know if i was the first, and i don't know if i was the only, but as of press time i was the first and only to comment.

1. always pull for your team to win, even if your backwards ass logic tells you not to (cowboys)

2. go titans!

3. GO TIGERS! (that means beat the shit out of arizona tonight)

Jeremy said...

1. I'm pulling for the Cowboys. The question was who do I think will win, not who do I want to win.

2. Go Oilers!

3. Bayless is better than Rose.

Bragman said...

I stopped reading after jeremy picked the bears. fuck the bears.